Plains Chase Tour: 5-16 thru 5-22

For the last several days we have been monitoring the mid range models in attempting to project how our chase tour will go next week.  The European model…which has proved to be the most reliable model in this range…continues to show several opportunities for us to have a great trip with our guests allowing us 2-3 different shots at tornadic activity as well as big supercells.

Here is the first shot…a trough starts moving in on the evening of the 18th with southwest flow across the Great Plains.  Low level moisture and thermal ridging will take place on the east side of the front range and potentially give us a good Colorado/Wyoming/W KS/W Nebraska/W OK or W TX chase.  This is all mid range at this point and is subject to some changes so we will obviously be nowcasting/forecasting as we make our trek west.

Below looks to be the potential big opportunity…

Large trof axis dips into the western states on the evening of Sunday May 20th.  This will transition east bound and setup for likely an active chase day potentially across the same areas as the first on Monday the 21st.  With such nice thermal ridging and moisture in place…I would say this could be a pretty healthy severe event if this kind of trof axis does indeed come to fruition.  This has been a consistent trend with the model and even some runs of the GFS are beginning to hint at this pattern change during the period.  Stay tuned to further updates regarding the forecast.

We still have TWO seats available for the journey.  brett@livestormsnow.com for details on how to be in one of the seats as we move westward next week.  Also, click the Twisted Tours link above and you can see exactly what the plans are as well as what you need!

South Texas Tornadic Storms

Lots of rotating storms this afternoon in South Texas with an advancing upper level low pressure system.  There have been many tornadoes reported this afternoon…some around pretty highly populated areas.  However, these tornadoes have not stayed on the ground very long and have not been extremely large.  Beeville and Corpus Christi were two particular areas that have dealt with some tornadic activity this afternoon.

Flooding has also been a concern with people being rescued around the Beeville area.  Another cluster of supercells crossed the MX/TX border during the last hour and will pose a tornadic threat through the remainder of the evening to Deep South Texas.  Keep your NOAA Weather Radios on as tornado watches and warnings are being issued.

Severe Threat Today…Tour WX Looks Active

The storm prediction center in Norman, Oklahoma has highlighted a slight risk of severe weather for portions of deep south Texas on tomorrow afternoon as an upper level system approaches the area from the west and aids in strong to severe storm development.  Increasing threat of severe storms will come after noon and continue into the evening hours as destabilization takes place.  Large hail and damaging winds appear to be the main threats with an isolated tornado not out of the realm of possibility.

This is the latest run of the NAM model for 21z on Thursday depicting the upper low along the southwestern Texas and Mexican border.  As this transitions ENE, wind fields will increase and aid in the development of some severe storms…including a few supercells being possible.  We have a few friends that are headed in that general direction at this hour and we will post updates if they end up getting on some nice storms tomorrow.

Now….we have been advertising our tour on Twisted Tours page on the blog.  This tour will now depart next Wednesday from Central Alabama and will return on the following Tuesday which is 5/22/12.  The trip cost is $1500 round trip which includes lodging and travel.  You will need a small suitcase, camera bag, and money for souvenirs and food.  Other than that…just bring yourself!  Also, the European model which is a great model in the mid range is teasing us with the new 00z run just in house of what we may expect next week.  SW flow aloft across the western plains is always a good thing…ponder on it.  brett@livestormsnow.com for details on the tour!

That spells severe weather and potential tornadoes folks…

Rain Ending W AL…Strong Storms possible SE AL

Showers and storms have been pretty heavy across the region the last two days with severe storms being held at a minimum.  There are some storms currently ongoing across parts of Chilton/Tallapoosa/Chambers counties with lightning and heavy rainfall totals being the main threats.  Some storms could increase in intensity as weak destabilization has taken place south of I-85 this afternoon.

The biggest deal has been the heavy rainfall totals across NW sections of the area in Lamar/Marion/Fayette counties just east of the Columbus MS radar site.  This part of the state had some excessive flooding particularly in the Guin area where some roads were flooded out yesterday and under water. 

Some of the latest imagery we have comes from @JerrodWBrown on twitter of waterspouts that impacted the Coden, Alabama area just a short time ago.  These cells were producing spouts just off of Dauphin Island, AL as tracked by radar just a short time ago. 

What an awesome photo of 3 spouts with a nice view of the condensation funnel all the way to the water in the center.  What a grab!

SPC has removed the SLGT risk for most of the area except the Dothan metro region in far southeast Alabama.  Parts of coastal FL/GA/SC/NC remain in a risk area for primarily damaging winds and small hail.  An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out especially from waterspouts moving on shore along the coastal panhandle of Florida.