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Tropical storm Isaac is currently still churning toward the west at a pretty rapid clip as he enters the Caribbean at this hour.  IR imagery shows that he has some pretty deep convection near the center at this time and looks to be strengthening as we enter a diurnal max.  Tropical storms tend to strengthen during the overnight as the waters tend to get as warm or warmer than the air above.  This allows for rising motion and convective development during the overnight.

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Early cycle track guidance above continues to shift toward the west and takes the storm into a larger portion of the Gulf of Mexico.  Ultimately…we expect this to continue for a little while.  The GFS ensembles (shown below) also are giving an indication with each run of a more westward push with this system.

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Now…we would like to warn all residents from the southern tip of the Florida peninsula all the way north and west to the Lake Charles, LA area to start monitoring this system with watchful eyes.  Currently…our projection is for this storm to come northward into the Gulf and be a “greatest threat” to areas from Mobile, Alabama to the east.  Panama City Beach, Florida is where we are currently planning to setup shop for the center of this system.  Areas on the eastern side will experience extreme winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge flooding.  Keep in mind…this is a developing situation and we will keep you updated as more information becomes available in the coming days.  Stay tuned…

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