The threat looks to be increasing across portions of the MS Delta region this morning as continued return flow has become established across much of Mississippi ahead of the cold frontal boundary and associated upper air trough. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted parts of the region for potentially significant tornado development from late morning through the evening hours. Brantley French and Jason Brand will be in the field streaming video here on LiveStormsNOW.com during the event. Click his name above or within this post to watch the live feed. More soon…
Tags: Brantley French, Chase, Jason Brand, LSN, MSWX, Severe, significant, SPC, threat, tornado
LIVE Chase, Nowcast, Severe Thunderstorms, Tornado | Brett Adair | 
February 10, 2013 9:48 am | 
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Tropical Storm Irene came to the boards this afternoon after RECON went in and finally found west winds to declare the LLC was closed. Maximum sustained winds at this hour are at 50mph with strengthening likely. Irene is expected to become a hurricane within the next 48 hours.
The convection associated with Irene is sitting underneath some strong upper divergence at this hour. The surface circulation is located well south of the deeper convection, but we are monitoring to see if this convection wraps closer to the low level center to the south…or if the center tries to reform under the deeper convection. This could pose major repercussions in terms of track with Irene.
To the west of Irene, Harvey continues its trek into southern Mexico and weakens. It leaves in its wake a weak shear environment ahead of Irene which should allow for pretty steady strengthening as the system continues to organize. Most models have Irene reaching hurricane status before hitting any major land masses. The biggest forecast challenge at this point is track. Track will have implications on the intensity due to the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba…if Irene chooses to cross them. If not…we have a totally different animal on our hands for the US coastline to be aware of.
This is our current best guess on track thru about Wednesday at this point. We expect the system to go more along the southern edge of the current guidance envelope and miss most of Haiti with the LLC. This is not an official forecast, but you can see where we have the ridge in the Atlantic and that will be a key feature to watch in the coming days. More soon…
Tags: atlantic, caribbean, cuba, Florida, haiti, Harvey, hispaniola, Irene, ridge, threat, Tropical Storm, US
Forecast, Tropics | Brett Adair | August 20, 2011 9:30 pm | Comments (1,508)
