Nick Hellums and crew are moving up I-35 this hour and will try to get toward western Kansas as quickly as possible for the impending threat of a few supercell thunderstorms this afternoon. Nick is streaming and will be streaming all day at the link that we provide you below or you can just clikc Mid-South Storm Chasers at the top of the page.
Above is my personal greatest area of concern with the afternoon. The dryline will bulge eastward and a developing surface low will back wind fields across the area. This triple point axis should set the stage for the cap to weaken as large scale ascent moves into Central Colorado. Thus, supercells should fire by late afternoon with the threat of maturity and potential for tornadoes between Hugo and Holyoke, Colorado. This will transition east throughout the evening. The greats threat will likely be in the Goodland forecast area as our hatched location shows.
Tomorrow will be another good chase day. We will try to get a blurb out about that risk and hope to have footage and photos from Nick and crew later this evening. Stay tuned…
Here is the current surface setup this morning. We currently have a weak area of low pressure centered over Central Texas around the Dallas metro area with a warm front extending across the northern Gulf Coastal plain and Black Belt areas. The movement of this warm front will be vital in just how unstable portions of the deep south get on this afternoon and Saturday when it comes to the potential for severe weather. A rather deep upper trough to the east will keep cool advection coming in pretty strong to the north of the warm front, but a deepening wave to the west should turn winds more southerly and at least get the surface features moving northward somewhat in response. These are all questions that will become resolved in the next 24 hours.
The day 2 convective outlook from the SPC highlights a good chunk of Alabama in a SLGT risk (standard risk) of severe storms for Saturday afternoon and into the overnight.
A 30% risk area has been defined from areas encircled from a Monroe, LA – Dothan, AL – Tuscaloosa, AL – Jackson, MS region. This area is expected to see the most unstable air mass during this period and will likely be in the uncontaminated warm sector for a decent period of time. Thus, diabatic heating could allow temperatures to soar into the mid 70’s to lower 80’s. This will need to be monitored for a possible upgrade to moderate risk if these factors do indeed come together.
At this time, we look for scattered cellular development to take place across Mississippi and Alabama tomorrow afternoon with the threat of hail, high winds, and a tornado or two. The hail threat could be rather significant. Then, the instability axis is forecast to spread northward toward the Tennessee Valley ahead of the cold front and allow for a strengthening line of severe storms to push through much of Central Alabama. We will continue to keep you alert of changes with the situation through early tomorrow. Stay tuned as we will likely have teams in the field for this potential high impact weather event.
Wow…what a day. LSM affiliate John Sibley captured the most intense footage of the day with tornadic activity near the Hattiesburg, MS metro area with a long tracked supercell that ravaged much of the area.
What a catch by our affiliate on his live stream today. We have video available for licensing if you are media. Contact email@example.com for information regarding licensing the high quality product that is degraded in the Youtube videos above.
John is scheduled to appear on several local affiliates in the morning along with The Weather Channel, ABC News, and Good Morning America. We will post updates as available along with more damage video and imagery.
Our chasers are getting into position for severe storms including the potential formation of supercells. I know that John and Brantley are headed toward the general area of McComb, MS along I-55. Nick is further north and just ahead of a severe line of storms that is impacting the Yazoo City area. Some rotation has been noted in those cells. We will keep you up to date on what is happening, but you can watch each of them LIVE by clicking their tabs at the top of the page!